Our work speaks for itself, and here we've selected reports that cover a broad range of what we do. If you'd like to see how we did during stretches not included here, please contact us.
04/03/08
Tough love, Swedish style
News that the Fed is studying how Nordic countries handled their early-1990s banking crises cheered the markets, but the enthusiastic bidders must not
have been paying attention to the details. Sweden took a successful and painful stand, which included raising overnight rates 500% to defend the krona.
Can you imagine the Feds raising rates a relatively modest 10% in the current environment?
Download TLR_04_03_08.pdf (313.8K)
01/14/08
Dimmed lights and a giant Grinch
A holiday season only Dr. Seuss's infamous character could love: electricity prices keeping Christmas lights in storage, mall vacancies at 11-year highs, phones
disconnected over unpaid bills, our recession index moving into full alarm mode, and a giant inflatable Grinch replacing the usual riot of Christmas lights in rural
New York.
Download TLR_01_14_08.pdf (726.4K)
01/03/08
Can exports save us from a recession?
We've been hearing a lot of talk about how we can export our way out of this mess, but a look at historical trends doesn't support that view. Oh, and, December
saw a nasty spike in our recession index.
Download TLR_01_03_08.pdf (433.4K)
12/12/07
The Italians are coming...to buy Prada!
This is one mighty unusual weak-dollar environment. It's all about tourists coming here to flex their currencies, which means our manufacturers aren't getting
much of a boost, and, perhaps oddest of all, challenged Upstate New York is once again BJ's strongest sales region. But all that shopping isn't enough to offset
domestic weakness; use this link to read what out tax contacts are saying about sagging sales tax receipts.
Download TLR_12_12_07.pdf (854.5K)
07/05/07
Sittin' on the dock:
We wrote this report cataloguing the burgeoning costs of our fraying infrastructure, including both the crumbling rocks and gravel and the rusting research edge,
on the Fourth of July as a patriotic plea. Click here to find out why research in "emergent phenomena" is crucial to our maintaining a leading role in the world
scientific community.
Download TLR_07_05_07.pdf (316.1K)
05/10/06
Edgy debtors and a history book
Although Yale Economist Robert Schiller didn't utter the words "irrational exuberance," they did summarize his message to the then Fed chair on the day before the
latter coined the phrase. We wrote this report to make sure our readers knew what Dr. Schiller had dug up recently on real estate prices: There's no real uptrend in
housing prices over the last century, and the then-current boom was a real anomaly.
Download TLR051006.pdf (120.2K)
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